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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd